NFL Free Agency Outlook

NFL Free Agency is upon us, as the legal negotiation window opens on Monday, March 10 and the new league year starting on Wednesday, March 12 at 4PM ET. What does this mean? The legal negotiation window means players and their agents can start contacting teams about a contract, while the new league year is when players officially put pen to paper. The time between these two days can be chaotic, with players signing with a team and choosing to go elsewhere before the deal becomes official, and when big-name players get huge deals. Just a couple years ago, Dallas Cowboys LB Randy Gregory agreed to a five-year extension with the team, but backed out and signed a similar deal with the Denver Broncos after there was disagreement in the contract language.

Before we start with who will go where, there are some players who were set to hit free agency, but cannot anymore. Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins was franchise tagged, as was Kansas City Chiefs OG Trey Smith. A top offensive tackle out of Los Angeles was Rams Alaric Jackson, who resigned with the team on a three-year, $57 million deal. The top linebacker in Eagles LB Zach Baun was resigned by the team on a similar three-year, $51 million deal.

So what does each position group look like, and is there something we should know with each one? Who are the neediest teams for each group? Who will be the biggest free agent signing from each position? That is what I am here for. Let’s dive right in.

QuarterBack:

Position outlook: There are some interesting storylines to follow with the quarterbacks. Sam Darnold had an astounding season with the Minnesota Vikings, as the former New York Jet shed the “draft bust” label and was named an All-Pro and Pro Bowler. Current New York Jet Aaron Rodgers is being released from the team after a disappointing year around the team, but he showed he has plenty left in the tank. The Pittsburgh Steelers had Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as starting QBs within the season, and both showed they have the talent to lead a successful team.

QB-needy teams: There are a few teams that jump out more than others. The Las Vegas Raiders are the first team that comes to mind, with both the New York Jets and New York Giants also moving on from their QBs recently. Both starting QBs for the Pittsburgh Steelers are entering free agency, so they should be looking to keep one of them. The Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans need a franchise QB, but they will likely address that in the NFL Draft. The New Orleans Saints are worth a mention, as QB Derek Carr has been underwhelming since his arrival to the team, but they will also likely look to the draft over a free agent.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: If you told me before this season that Sam Darnold would be the biggest free agent QB in the off-season, I would have told you that it was a very weak free agent class. Instead, he put up a monster season with the Minnesota Vikings and will gain a monster contract. It won’t be with the Vikings, as they selected QB J.J. McCarthy in the first round of last years draft. So instead, Darnold will sign the biggest deal with either the New York Giants or the Las Vegas Raiders to be the next face for that franchise. I wouldn’t be surprised if the contract was on the caliber of four years, $140 million.

Running Back:

Position outlook: The free agent running back class this year is not great. You have guys like Aaron Jones, who are great players but are starting to go down in production and up in age. You have guys like Nick Chubb, who have been great in the past but have been put through rough injuries and haven’t been the same since. Finally, you have guys like Javonte Williams, who were given the starter job on the team and didn’t perform the best.

RB-needy teams: There are a couple teams that legitimately need a running back, like the Dallas Cowboys, Giants, and Raiders. All three teams recently lost guys who could have avoided this problem for each, but here they are anyways. The Broncos did not have a great run game at the position, so they should be on the lookout to bring that phase of the game up. There’s also a couple teams that have a running back (with some aforementioned problems) hitting the market, like the Browns with Nick Chubb and the Vikings with Aaron Jones. There will be plenty of teams looking for a better running back, but few of them will actually be a starter.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: The Denver Broncos struggled in running the ball effectively, so a top position to target should be running back. With Nick Chubb coming off of multiple injuries, teams may be cautious to sign him, nonetheless use him in their offense. Instead, the Broncos will sign Aaron Jones on a one year, $7 contract to help elevate their run game.

Wide Receiver:

Position outlook: The WR market is looking great, but with one glaring problem – age. The crown of the class has to be Devante Adams, but it has been said that he will go to the west coast or a contender. Top talents like Keenan Allen, Stefan Diggs, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, and Chris Godwin will hit the market, but only Godwin is under 30 years old. After them, you have the Brandin Cooks’ of the world, who are aged veterans, and the KJ Osborne’s of the world, who are reliable third options out wide.

WR-needy teams: The New England Patriots need a lot of help, especially at the wide receiver position. I would not be surprised to see them take a top wideout in free agency and another early in the draft. The Packers could use a top receiving option, as they are in a slightly better position than the Patriots. The Panthers are another team needing a receiver, as Adam Thielen is aging and remains the only possible threat to opposing defenses. The Raiders top option out wide is Jakobi Meyers, who is on the last year of his deal and not the biggest threat to opposing defenses. A host of other teams also need a second, capable receiver, such as the Titans and Steelers.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: As stated before, the New England Patriots need a lot of help. Lucky for them, they also have the most cap space available. And while there are better options than Godwin, him signing with the Patriots would provide the most impact. With both of these as the top reasons to spend and acquire talent, I think New England will swing big and sign former Buccaneer Chris Godwin to a similar tune of three years, $75 million.

Tight End:

Position outlook: If you *need* a new tight end this offseason, try and look elsewhere. The only high-quality free agent is Evan Engram, who was released by the Jaguars. There are also some good veterans available, such as Zach Ertz or Gerald Everett, but they all seem to be past their prime. You also have guys like Tyler Conklin and Juwan Johnson, who are serviceable but not stars.

TE-needy teams: Teams including the Bengals, Jets, and Commanders will need a new tight end, as their starters are entering free agency and there is no clear backup behind them. Then you have teams like the Panthers and Broncos, who have their starters staying but did not exactly prove to be a game changer. And of course, there are plenty of teams who have a capable starter, but would like a capable backup as well.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: With a shallow free agent pool, the biggest free agent available will be the recently-released Evan Engram. The Commanders have the chance to take their offense to the next level by adding a guy like Engram to Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel. He is on the wrong side of 30, so his contract would be shorter than longer. I expect to see a two year deal worth between $10 and $15 million.

Offensive Tackle:

Position outlook: Much like wide receiver, this free agency group has a lot of older, great talent. Ronnie Stanley, Cam Robinson, Joseph Noteboom, Tyron Smith, and Trent Brown are probably the top-level talents available. Meanwhile serviceable guys like Isaiah Wynn, Morgan Moses, D.J. Humphries are able to be a stop-gap option for teams. Finally, you have some guys like Jedrick Wills, who is a former top-10 draft pick, that still have untapped potential and could be a bargain for the future.

OT-needy teams: Tackle help is needed significantly by a lot of teams. The Patriots need help almost everywhere on the team, so they will be in this market. The Jets had two aging, yet talented veterans as their starters on one year deals, so they will need a new tackle to play alongside 2024 first round pick Olu Fashanu. The Chiefs do not have a lot of cap space, but they should still look to improve the protection around Patrick Mahomes. The Cowboys had poor play from their tackle positions, leaving Terrence Steele as a possible cut candidate. The Browns are in a similar boat, as they have a complete mess of a roster, and an improvement at tackle would help make life easier for their next quarterback.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: There has already been rumors of Ronnie Stanley being sought after by the Patriots and the Chiefs, and that makes complete make sense. Both teams need a good blindside tackle for their quarterbacks. However, the Chiefs are in cap trouble, which makes acquiring anyone a problem. The Patriots have plenty of holes and plenty of money, so they are the obvious choice for the talented tackle to land on a three year, $63 million deal.

Interior Offensive Line:

Position outlook: The clear-cut top player in this group is aged veteran G Brandon Scherff. He won’t sign anywhere on a long deal, but he will be a great option for the next season or two. C Ryan Kelley is in a similar boat, as he is a great player on the wrong side of 30. The most interesting player has to be G Mehki Becton. After an unsuccessful stint at tackle with the New York Jets, Becton joined the Eagles and played guard at a high level for the eventual Super Bowl champions. He may be a bit of an experiment to see if he can continue his resurgence, and his next contract will probably show that. The rest of the class is full of serviceable guys, including G James Daniels, G Alex Cappa, G Kevin Zeitler, G Patrick Mekari, and G Will Hernandez.

IOL-needy teams: Plenty of teams need interior offensive lineman. The Cincinnati Bengals come to mind, as they recently released starting guard Alex Cappa and made their need even larger. The Cardinals have all kinds of protection issues, as do the Dolphins and Giants. The Vikings could use a sizable upgrade at the position, as their starters inside the line were lacking.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: The Eagles have some maneuverability with their cap space, so resigning Mekhi Becton is not off the table for them. They might have to look elsewhere to fill his spot, as another team can come in and offer more money than the Eagles want to give him. The Giants may be that team, as they have cap space to use and an offensive line to rebuild. I would expect around a four year, $50 million deal in the end to lure him from their division rival.

Interior Defensive Line:

Position outlook: The interior defensive line market is a great mixed-bag. The well-known jewel of the class is recently released Jonathan Allen, who is a former All-Pro and Pro Bowler. There are some aged veterans, like Sheldon Rankins and DJ Jones, who can go in and get the job done for a year or two. There are some experienced guys who are still young, like Javon Kinlaw, who have showed flashes in the past and can still perform. Finally, you have guys like Milton Williams and Bobby Brown, who are young stars in the making. If your team needs help on the interior d-line, you are in luck.

IDL-needy teams: When thinking of pressure, you won’t think of the Patriots. They generated the least amount of sacks across the entire league with 28. So when talking about teams in need of a defensive line, they will be mentioned heavily. The loss of Christian Wilkins last offseason proved big for the Dolphins, as they still need a capable replacement there. The Bengals and Cardinals are both losing their two top interior defensive lineman, so replacements are needed. The Texans are in need of improvements as well, as their interior could look better.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: The biggest rumor around the NFL is how the market is shaping up for Milton Williams. Every team should want the athletically talented defensive tackle, but not every team can afford him. The teams I have heard want him the most are the Vikings, Cardinals, and Patriots, as all have plenty of cap space to spend. However, the Patriots are supposed to be the most aggressive, so I believe that they will give Williams a giant four year, $84 million contract.

EDGE:

Position outlook: Edge Rusher may be the second best position group available. A lot are aged veterans, such as OLB Khalil Mack and DE Demarcus Lawrence, who can prove to still be a force on any team. There are also guys in their prime still, like DE Dre’Mont Jones and DE Josh Sweat. Then you consider DE Chase Young, who is turning 26 (!!!) for this upcoming season, who still shows there was a reason he was the #2 overall draft pick in 2020. And late to the party are the late cap-cuts, OLB Joey Bosa and OLB Harold Landry. There’s talent to spare here, if anything.

EDGE-needy teams: As stated before, the Patriots need a pass rush, so they will be looking for an edge rusher as well. The Bears have Montez Sweat, but their rush outside of him is lacking. The Browns are a mess, with All-Pro Myles Garrett requesting a trade out, so they may need to replace him in some capacity. The Titans released Harold Landry, so they have even more of a need on the edge. The Falcons need an upgrade, with Grady Jarrett better on the inside than on the edge.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: I personally believe Chase Young is the highest upside free agent, but he may not be paid like it. Josh Sweat was a massive part in helping the Eagles win their second Super Bowl, and he will be the biggest signing of this position class. There have been rumblings that the Patriots, who desperately need talent on their roster, are not interested in Sweat, so you can take them off the board. The Cardinals are an obvious choice, with their head coach and defensive coordinator being former coaches of Sweat’s. I think that, along with a good four year, $88 million deal, will be enough for Sweat to make his new home be Arizona.

Inside LineBacker:

Position outlook: Inside linebacker was set to be an old group, but Bobby Wagner resigned with the Commanders and Lavonte David resigned with the Buccaneers. Regardless, the best two options at the position were and still are Nick Bolton and Dre Greenlaw. Greenlaw is a tricky guy to gauge the market on, as he was injured for almost the entire season with two separate injuries. After them, there are a lot of valuable veterans – De’Vondre Campbell, Willie Gay, and Jamien Sherwood specifically – who can help, but they’re not stars.

ILB-needy teams: With the team being in a tough cap situation, the Chiefs are letting Nick Bolton enter free agency, marking them as a team in need. In a similar situation, albeit with better cap space, are the 49ers with Dre Greenlaw. Teams that were never so lucky to have an inside linebacker of their caliber are in need, which include the Browns, Cowboys, and Raiders.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: Nick Bolton is undoubtably the best inside linebacker on the market. He has won two super bowls with the Chiefs and proved to be a valuable talent and leader. His hometown team needs some talent in the middle of the defense, and they cleared enough cap space to be able to bring him back to Texas. It’s a no-brainer for Bolton to sign with the Cowboys, especially if it is on a four year, $52 million contract.

CornerBack:

Position outlook: Cornerback will be fun. Lots of experience while not being too old to decline yet, with the headliners being Charvarius Ward, Carlton Davis, DJ Reed, Byron Murphy, and Asante Samuel Jr. Furthermore, there are aging veterans who can still play at a high level, such as Darius Slay, Stephon Gilmore, and Jonathan Jones. There’s plenty of talent available for teams that need a new top corner, and even talent for the teams that need a second.

CB-needy teams: Almost every team could use a corner, which is true for every year. There are a few teams that on paper have capable corners on both sides, but that never holds up. I’m thinking Bengals and Lions here, primarily. There are also a few teams who have multiple starters at the position entering free agency, like the Chargers and the Vikings.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: I believe the best corner overall is Charvarius Ward. In the end, however, I do think he is going to stay in San Fransisco on a three year, $39 million contract, so I’m not going to count that. Instead, I can see the biggest impact player being Asante Samuel Jr. He is an extremely talented player, but only played four games this past season due to a shoulder injury. He’ll be taken for a discount, end up on a team like the Lions on a one year, two million dollar contract, and gain a sizable new contract next offseason.

Safety:

Position outlook: Like cornerback, the same can be said for safety. The biggest free agents available would be Chiefs Justin Reid, Dolphins Jevon Holland, 49ers Talanoa Hufanga, and Raiders Trevon Moerig. Even more similarly, there are plenty of stop-gap veterans who would be great for a year or two, such as Falcons Justin Simmons.

S-needy teams: There are a lot of teams that need a good starting safety, but the Chiefs stand out to me the most – mainly because they’re letting starter Justin Reid enter free agency. They don’t have much of a choice, with the amount of cap space they have and all, but that only increases their need at the position. The Dolphins are in the same position with Jevon Holland. The 49ers, Giants, and Commanders all have money to spend on a safety, so look for a lot of shuffling at the position in the next week.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: Jevon Holland is arguably the best safety available in this class, and will likely be paid as such. Part of me wants to say the Chiefs somehow get him – because that’s how the league is these days – but realistically, I believe a guy like him will command at least $16 million per year and the Chiefs would have massive trouble fitting that. So, instead, Holland will land with a team with plenty of cash and high upside – that being the 49ers on a massive four year, $78 contract.

Kicker/Punter:

Position outlook: While kickers and punters are not the flashiest signings, everyone can agree that they are so very important to every team. Unfortunately, the special teamer market is rather dry. You have some notable veterans, such as K Nick Folk, P Tress Way, K Matt Prater, and P Bryan Anger, who can still do their job efficiently. There are some players still in their prime, like K Michael Badgely, P JK Scott, and K Joey Slye, who are serviceable and a good starting option. Finally, there are some young guys like K Cade York, P Ryan Stonehouse, and K Spencer Shraeder. None of these guys are going to break the bank or do anything mind-blowing, but there are good, serviceable options available.

K/P-needy teams: There can only be so many top-tier kickers in the league. Plenty of teams have not had such a kicker in years, such as the Patriots and Packers. Other squads, like the Commanders, Panthers, and Saints, have been flipping through many kickers over the years and have yet to find a top option. The Jets have aged veterans for their kicker and punter positions, so a younger option would be ideal for the squad.

My prediction for the biggest free agent signing: No kicker or punter who is signed will be considered a “big free agent get.” That said, I think Michael Badgely has plenty to prove and can be a valuable asset on special teams. I still wouldn’t expect anything huge from any of these free agents, so a two year, four million dollar contract would sound right as Badgely goes to the Titans.