The #13 LSU Tigers are looking to snap a four game season opening game losing streak against a team that has to answer a lot of the same questions as them in the #23 USC Trojans. When looking at both the Tigers and Trojans, it is like looking at a mirror.
Both the Trojans and Tigers will be replacing a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, trying to rebuild their defenses with new assistants, and are led by head coaches entering their third seasons in Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly respectively.
Although both teams are represented by two different conferences in the Big 10 and the SEC and that this is only the third all-time matchup between these two big brand names in college football, Brian Kelly has a lot of personal history going against USC when he was at Notre Dame. Kelly has a good track record of playing against the Trojans as he has an 8-2 overall record during his time at South Bend.
After back to back 10 win seasons, there are a lot of high expectations for the Tigers to take the next step and contend for a SEC championship along with a College Football Playoff berth. In order to help achieve that next step, Brian Kelly will have to avoid a third consecutive season opening loss after losing to Florida State the last two season openers.
Both Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley have achieved some success and have had their moments at their current stops, but they are trying to lead two college football blue blood programs back into elite status.
Offensively, both LSU and USC have a lot of skill offensive weapons to succeed, but will be led by new triggermen running the show. While both offenses will have to replace the number one and two overall picks in Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, both new starting quarterbacks have shown flashes of what they are capable of.
Garrett Nussmeier has waited his turn for this moment to be LSU’s full-time starter since he arrived on campus in 2020. After being under the wing of Jayden Daniels the last two years, the son of NFL Quarterbacks Coach Doug Nussmeier gets his full-time opportunity. The gunslinger from Lake Charles, Louisiana has flashed when he has gotten the chance highlighted by a MVP performance in the ReliaQuest Bowl against Wisconsin when he threw for 395 yards and three touchdowns including the game winning touchdown at the end.
“I’ve been trusting in God and trusting in God’s plan for me. Sometimes you want things and it may not come when you want it, but God has the right timing, so it’s about trusting in Him and letting it happen when it was supposed to happen.”
“It’s been a long three years trying to stay patient and trust in the plan, trust in the process, trust in God’s plan. It’s a weird feeling, but I’m very excited. I’m more excited to get out there and play my best and show people what I can do.”
LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier
USC’s quarterback Miller Moss is also in a similar boat as he is also filling in some big shoes after having to replace Caleb Williams at quarterback. However, like Nussmeier, Moss also showed flashes of what he is capable of after a MVP performance in which he tied a program record six touchdown passes in the Holiday Bowl against Louisville. Also like Nussmeier, he has also waited three years for this moment of becoming the starting quarterback.
“It’s hard in what we do to stop and smell the roses. I mean, obviously, it was a goal I set for myself a long time ago, and I’m happy I accomplished that. But I don’t think it’s necessarily about that now. It’s about going and winning games.”
USC QB Miller Moss
Both quarterbacks will have the keys to a pretty fast sports car, which is an offense full of explosive weapons.
The LSU offense does have to replace 1st Round NFL Draft picks in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., but the cupboard is not left dry by any means of the imagination led by Kyren Lacy at wide receiver and Mason Taylor at tight end. Lacy was the number three receiver last season behind the duo of Nabers and Thomas, but still had a nice stretch at the end of the season and finished with 30 grabs for 558 yards and seven touchdowns. He is expected to emerge as the team’s number one option.
Along with Lacy, Brian Kelly says that the group is seven wide receivers deep including Chris Hilton Jr., Liberty transfer CJ Daniels, who had over 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last season, Mississippi State transfer Zavion Thomas, Kyle Parker, Aaron Anderson, and Shelton Sampson Jr. Hilton is the only player questionable for Saturday’s game with a bone bruise. If he were not to go, Kyle Parker would step in as the third starting receiver behind Lacy and Daniels.
Brian Kelly also likes to use the tight ends in the offense and they have three talented pass catchers in Mason Taylor, Ka’Morreun Pimpton, and Trey’Dez Green. Taylor is expected to have a big role going into his third year.
The Tigers’ biggest advantage over the Trojans this Sunday night is their veteran offensive line that returns four starters including two tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones that are projected 1st Round NFL Draft picks. They will be blocking for a running back rotation of Josh Williams, Kaleb Jackson, John Emery Jr., and Caden Durham. Campbell, who has been part of the last two season opening losses, is tired of the early season disappointment and plans on taking out his frustrations on the Trojans.
“We’re going to run the ball. That’s not something we’re hiding or trying to keep quiet. I’m telling everybody right now, we’re going to run the football. Our running backs are big, fast and powerful guys. I’m just excited for them.”
“We know what we’re going to Las Vegas for. We’re not there to go to Caesar’s Palace. We’re there to go get in a fist fight, and everybody in this building knows it, and that’s just what it is.”
LSU OT Will Campbell
On the other side, USC will figure to be explosive led by one of the best offensive minds in the country in Lincoln Riley and Moss will have some reliable options to help him grow in the offense. The rushing attack would be a huge deciding factor if the Trojans were able to pull off the win as Mississippi State transfer Woody Marks comes to Los Angeles with 1,883 career rushing yards and 22 touchdowns.
Like LSU, Moss will have plenty of options to throw to including their most dangerous offensive weapon in Zachariah Branch, who was a 1st Team All-American return specialist, and can change the game not only on offense, but on special teams. With LSU’s issues over fall in the punting game with two players still competing for the starting job, the Trojans could use special teams to their favor. The Trojans will certainly find the way to give the ball to Moss, but there are other playmakers as well including Duce Robinson, who is a big mismatch at 6’6, 215 pounds, Kyle Ford, who comes in from UCLA where he had 873 receiving yards and six touchdowns, Auburn transfer Jay Fair, San Jose State transfer Charles Ross, Ja’Kobi Lane, Makai Lemon, and tight end Lake McRee, who has 43 career catches for 459 yards and three scores.
These two offenses will move the ball and score points, but the game could come down to which defense makes the most plays with a new defensive coordinator.
After having one of the worst defenses in school history last year, Brian Kelly hired former Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to help turnaround that side of the football. Despite the many problems on that side of the ball, Baker may have some more pieces to work with especially All-American linebacker Harold Perkins Jr., who was selected to wear the prestigious number 7 jersey for LSU. Perkins is a projected first round NFL Draft pick and has 13 sacks to go along with 26 TFLs over the last two years. The former five star prospect is a game wrecker and is coming off a fall camp in which his head coach Brian Kelly has said that his star defender has made the jump from good defender to elite defender.
The defense does have options at defensive end with guys like Saivion Jones, Bradyn Swinson, and Da’Shawn Womack, but are thin at the interior. Jacobian Guillory and Wisconsin transfer Gio Paez are penciled in starters, but the depth behind them is going to be a question mark for this defense moving forward. Alongside Perkins, the linebacking core is expected to become a strength with veteran Greg Penn returning and Whit Weeks as a player with tremendous upside.
The secondary was a question mark for the Tigers going into the fall, but has been an improved unit over the course of fall camp. Sage Ryan has been cross-training at cornerback and most likely will hold one of the starting spots there while Ashton Stamps is going to be the other starting corner on the other side. At safety, Texas A&M transfer Jardin Gilbert and Jordan Allen will command the backend of the defense and finally, Major Burns will move closer to the line of scrimmage at the STAR position, which will be a more comfortable position for him. Time will tell on Sunday especially with USC’s dynamic receiving core to see exactly what kind of strides this group has made.
As bad as LSU’s defense was last year, USC’s was arguably worse last season giving up 34 points per game. After firing Alex Grinch as the defensive coordinator last offseason, former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn will also have the opportunity to turn around USC’s defense. What the Trojans did in the offseason was add 14 transfers to the defensive side of the football including nose tackle Bear Alexander, who came in from Georgia and is expected to be a high draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He is joined with Vanderbilt transfer Nate Clifton up front. The whole starting defensive line is made of transfers in Texas A&M transfer Anthony Lucas and Georgia State transfer Jamil Muhammad, who led the team in sacks last year with 6.5.
This transfer portal defense continues at the linebacker position with Oregon State 1st Team All-Pac 12 linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold coming in after having over 100 tackles last season for the Beavers. Former Oklahoma State linebacker Mason Cobb returns after leading the Trojans in tackles with 85, and former Arizona State linebacker Eric Gentry will get some playing time as well.
The backend of the defense is led by another former Oregon State Beaver in Akili Arnold, who has over 25 career starts at safety. He is joined by sophomore Kamari Ramsey, who is a transfer from rival UCLA and joins the Trojans after a productive freshman year. At cornerback, the Trojans will look to true freshman Marcelles Williams, who was a four year starter at California power St. John Bosco.
If you take the uniforms off both teams and compare them side by side, nobody would know the difference as both these two storied programs mirror each other, but there will be one major difference by the end of Sunday night as everybody will see which team is taking the first step into becoming a true contender.
LSU’s Biggest Advantage: Offensive Line Against Defensive Line
Will Campbell said it himself that there is no question what LSU wants to do and that is run the football. With veterans like Campbell, Jones, Miles Frazier, and Garrett Dellinger leading the way, they will lean on one of the best units in college football. USC has a talented defensive line, but with a lot of new transfers, LSU can have a lot of success Sunday night and make it a long night for the Trojans defense.
USC’s Biggest Advantage: Special Teams
As stated earlier, USC has a big advantage in the return game and based on the last couple of season openers for LSU, special teams has proven to cost them in those games especially two years ago in the Superdome against Florida State. What is most concerning is that the Trojans have one of the most electric players in college football in Zachariah Branch while LSU’s punting situation has been inconsistent in distance and hangtime with both of the Tigers’ options. If Branch gets a short hang time, it could be trouble for LSU’s special teams coverage
LSU’s X Factor: Saivion Jones and Bradyn Swinson
USC’s offensive line gave up 30 sacks last season and especially with LSU’s secondary going against a talented Trojans receiving core, LSU’s pass rush could be key going against a first year starting quarterback. Blake Baker has been aggressive with his pass rush by sending safeties and cornerbacks, but if the edge rushers Saivion Jones and Bradyn Swinson can at least make Miller Moss rush his throws and make mistakes.
USC’s X Factor: Duce Robinson
Everybody talks about Zachariah Branch and rightfully so, but Duce Robinson can be a mismatch for LSU’s secondary. With his 6’6 frame, Robinson could win a lot of one on one matchups against the defensive backs for LSU. If he makes plays and can take a lot of the attention off Branch, then LSU’s defense is going to have its hands full.
Final Score Prediction: LSU 35, USC 31
As indicated with how these two teams mirror each other, it is going to be a back and forth offensive shootout, but the biggest thing for LSU to win ballgames this year is time of possession and turnover ratio. I believe that LSU will be able play keep away late from USC and will also make that extra defensive play in the ballgame to give the Tigers that season opener win that has been ever elusive in the Brian Kelly era.
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